The Need for a Viable Opposition Grows Stronger: Mr. Wickremasinghe Must Go. Quickly.

The Executive and Legislative branches of government, an independent judiciary and a free media are traditionally considered the four pillars of a democracy. But in a country such as Sri Lanka where the judiciary and media are under attack, a fifth pillar becomes vital to democracy's survival. This fifth pillar made up of a strong opposition was never more needed than today as Sri Lanka stands at a crossroads following the cataclysmic end of a long drawn out civil war. Alarmingly, this fifth pillar embodied by the opposition United National Party appears to be crumbling under the weight of its own resistance to change. Judging by its lackadaisical response to recent events, the UNP has declared itself as irrelevant as it has indeed become.

In the days following the military victory announced by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapakse on May 17, 2009 a notable absentee from the fire-cracker-smoke engulfed capital Colombo has been opposition leader Ranil Wickremasinghe. When last heard of, he was on a visit to Norway to address human rights abuses in Sri Lanka. As one of the Tokyo Co-Chairs group of major donors Norway is important to Sri Lanka and perhaps it was only Norway that would lend him an ear (unlikely scenario considering the UK, France and the US have been clamouring for a chance at intervention in the war zone) but this visit was never going to help Mr. Wickremasinghe’s badly damaged image at home. Due to its leadership of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, which many Sri Lankans believe largely turned a blind eye on ceasefire violations by the LTTE, no foreign nation is more reviled by ordinary Sri Lankans than Norway. Yet, to add political suicide to what might otherwise have been a fairly innocuous foreign visit, Mr. Wickremasinghe is yet to return to the island. Nor has he thought it fit to issue a statement (no difficult task in this technological age) on the historic events playing out in his absence.

His party, in the meantime, managed to cobble together a nearly incoherent statement harping on the past and issued two whole days after Mr. Rajapakse’s victorious address from Jordan (where he had been attending a World Economic Forum). This statement, issued through the UNP’s nearly septuagenarian deputy leader Karu Jayasuriya, set forth no clear ideas regarding how the UNP would help rebuild this fractured nation. The UNP appears in dire need of new leadership and a new message.

Mr. Wickremasinghe was never a man seen as one with the masses of Sri Lanka. With his rarefied upbringing and interests (a member of Colombo’s wealthy elite, he is an avid opera lover with a media collection that sometimes includes over ten different productions of a single opera) it is easier to imagine him at one with the people of Europe than of Sri Lanka. Indeed, Sri Lanka’s unease with him (exacerbated by his alleged links to the violent suppression of youth movements in the 1980s) has been illustrated by many an election loss and has caused members of his own party to clamour for his resignation for years. The highly able and widely respected Mr. Jayasuriya long seemed a viable alternative but he has been made to languish in the wings for over a decade until he is now too long in the tooth. He will be nearing 80 when Mr. Rajapakse, who few doubt will secure a second term as president having delivered what none before him managed, is ready to pass the baton.

But hope remains. There are signs that the UNP is not blind to its own decay. It recently attempted a makeover by enlisting into its membership Rosie Senanayake, a former Mrs. World and talk show host and other more youthful members. But alas, the UNP remains an aging Old Boys Club dominated by Colombo’s old money and it is going to need more than one beauty queen to change it’s image. A makeover requires more than a pedicure to effect a real change and the UNP must start with a face lift - it must change from the top. It is imperative that Mr. Wickremasinghe is shown the door or hauled out of it if he won’t go quietly. There is talent in the UNP ranks able to present the blossoming Rajapakse dynasty with a real challenge when the time or need arises. However loathed I am to further the dynastic nature of Sri Lanka’s politics Sajith Premadasa, the son of late President Ranasinghe Premadasa, awaits his chance and appears a man who might succeed where Mr. Wickremasinghe so resoundingly failed.

Sri Lanka stands at a crossroads with the war won but also with the democracy under siege. Its judiciary is intimidated and the independent media and its champions silenced (permanently in some cases). Political goons hold sway in Colombo and not even journalists dare speak their minds. The loudest voices on the political scene come from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna and the Jaathika Hela Urumaya, two parties driven by Sinhala chauvinism – a dangerous development at a time that calls for national reconciliation. While Mr. Rajapakse’s star rises and Mr. Wickremasinghe grows more and more reviled, Sri Lanka is in danger of replacing the northern cult of Prabhakaran with the southern cult of Rajapakse. Not a healthy prospect for a democracy however deserving Mr. Rajapakse may be of the adulation. Now more than ever a strong opposition is needed to keep the country in balance. Maintaining as leader the man who lead the party to just one solitary election victory (and 7 defeats) in nearly two decades is not the way to ensure strength. Moreover, with or without Mr. Wickremasinghe, the UNP will lose the next parliamentary election and most likely the next presidential one as well. If the UNP is to mount a challenge thereafter, it must let new leaders cut their teeth in the campaign process. And they must chose new leaders with a feel for the pulse of the electorate that the charismatic Mr. Rajapakse seems to understand so well. The traditional UNP vote base longer seems enough to carry them to victory. It would also help to let people know what exactly the UNP now stands for.